Former military experts in France considered the western Mediterranean, a region witnessing many geopolitical changes fueled by the conflicts between Morocco and Algeria on the one hand, and between Morocco and Spain on the other hand, as well as a conflict that appears on the surface at times between Spain and the United Kingdom over Gibraltar.
Experts stated in a research study published by the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies “FMES” that “the Canary Archipelago and the enclave of Ceuta and Melilla feed the friction between Spain and Morocco, while Gibraltar remains a subject of tension between Spain and the United Kingdom.”
The report mainly refers to the tensions between Rabat and Algiers, where experts put forward a scenario in the event of a confrontation erupting between the two countries, in which the generals' regime would be the aggressor, according to the study published by the French newspaper L'Opignon.
The research center reported that the Mediterranean basin witnessed a series of geopolitical events over the past decade that changed the balance of power in the region and the balance inherited from the end of the Cold War, and its extension towards the Red Sea due to various conflicts of varying intensity affecting the stability of the Mediterranean basin. , such as the civil wars in Libya and Syria.
The foundation warned of several reasons that could lead to an armed confrontation, represented in the historical rivalry between the two countries and the conflict over the Sahara that poisoned the relations between Rabat and Algeria for nearly four decades, and a possible attack by Algerian generals in the event of the fall of their regime.
The same institution developed military scenarios in the event of a confrontation, noting that Rabat has an advantage on the ground, where, in addition to its intelligence experience, it will benefit from American and Israeli cyber capabilities; While Algeria's ground-based intelligence and surveillance capabilities are more important in quantitative terms, they cannot be diverted from the coast's borders for long.
On the other hand, the Foundation adds, the modern Kilo submarines at the disposal of the Algerian Navy will give the eastern neighbor “undersea superiority and allow it to easily impose a naval embargo on Morocco,” adding that this advantage can be negated by the Royal Navy’s acquisition of mines and drones. Medium-sized and other anti-submarine means.
On the traditional level, according to the institution, the prediction varies with the different theater of operations, noting that “Morocco will not have any military interest in a land confrontation in the south,” a flat area where the nature of the terrain will provide a clear advantage for Algerian forces trained in flat ground combat and have deep offensive capabilities. I distinguish.
On the other hand, in the north, the mountain relief would be favorable to the Moroccan armed forces and would “provide them with a strategic depth that would allow them to easily keep the axes of penetration and the time of trade for a few plots of land.”
At the air level, experts considered that Morocco's delivery of American F-16V aircraft gives a wide advantage to the Kingdom, and FMES experts also agree on the hypothesis that there will be a "mutual weakness that may involve disproportionate losses", in the event of the extensive use of deep attacks by both sides.
and “In the event of a major confrontation, Morocco's strategy will undoubtedly aim to reach a dead end through a classic defense and asymmetric actions in Algerian territory and a communications war; In the end, the most likely scenario remains the frequent border skirmishes between Algeria and Morocco,” say FMES experts.