Paris - “Al-Quds Al-Arabi”: The weekly newspaper “Le Journal du Dimanche” said in its issue issued today, Sunday, that Ukraine is a nightmare for US President Joe Biden for the following reasons:
1- Joe Biden is 79 years old. He lived through the Cold War as a young man and shared power in the years following the fall of communism and the dissolution of the Soviet Union. He knows exactly what the Paris Pact was signed by OSCE countries, including Russia, in 1990, which requires signatories to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state.”
He also knows what is covered by the Budapest Protocol, signed under the presidency of former US President Bill Clinton in 1993, which allows Ukraine, in exchange for returning the nuclear weapons on its territory to Russia, to obtain its independence and territorial integrity. And when Joe Biden was Vice President of former US President Barack Obama, the events of Maidan in Kiev in 2013 that preceded the annexation of Crimea and the secession of pro-Russians in Donbass were at the forefront of the US administration's concerns. For the current US president, Vladimir Putin's talk once again of a zone of influence and the restoration of Russian power at its gates poses a real danger.
2- Joe Biden is one of the most pro-European American presidents. Despite his support for Barack Obama's approach to Asia, he strongly hopes that Europe will find the political and military means to better ensure its security so that it can allow America to take care of the region of priority for it, which today has become Asia, especially the China Sea. At the same time, however, he realizes that while waiting to see a more “mature” European Union, in the words of Wendy Sherman, NATO remains the best tool to dissuade Russia from pushing its pawns any further.
3- Joe Biden wants to be an opponent of his predecessor, Trump, who tried to sink his campaign by trying to stir up a scandal around his son Hunter, who was then hired by a Ukrainian company, in order to raise accusations of conflict of interest and corruption.
Biden, on the other hand, when he was vice president, threatened to withhold aid to Ukraine to force the authorities at the time to appoint an anti-corruption prosecutor who was highly critical of the oligarch. At the same time, judicial and parliamentary investigations have shown that many of Trump's confidants, including his lawyer Rudolph Giuliani, profited greatly from questionable deals with Ukrainian companies.
Having become president, Joe Biden knows very well that Ukraine will not get rid of corruption overnight, part of which includes pro-Russian oligarchs or those close to the Kremlin. He knows that Ukraine cannot join the European Union or NATO either. But he does not want, under any pretext, that an external force is the one that deprives it of this future.
4- Joe Biden believes (perhaps too much) in diplomacy, as he is not convinced that force of arms can solve everything. In Afghanistan, he often favored the use of drones and discussions with local actors to send troops into battles as costly as they were futile. In Iraq, he voted for George W. Bush's invasion before realizing this was wrong.
With Putin, Biden believes he can negotiate. Not on the dictates imposed on him. But based on his proposals, a return to strategic and conventional disarmament discussions, more transparency in military exercises, dialogue and cooperation.
5- Joe Biden is a Catholic.. Ukraine is home to four million Catholics out of a population of 25 million, the vast majority of whom are Orthodox. Memories of what the Church did to help Catholics in eastern countries fight communism, especially in Poland, are still the same in Joe Biden's memory. For him, the alliance of the Russian Orthodox Church with the Kremlin is part of the will to hegemony that must be resisted. He can also, with Pope Francis in tune with him, raise the level of diplomacy, which is the best way to avoid the worst.
6- Joe Biden is in an internal political impasse, as there is opposition within his party to his reforms in social and environmental investment and ensuring the right to vote. Estimates and predictions for the November 8 midterm elections are getting worse every day. This means that if the Republicans win, with a Congress that will now be hostile to him, Biden will have no choice but to invest in the only area in which he still has autonomy: foreign policy. Which makes each of the geopolitical tests imposed on him or that he chooses an additional test of credibility.
7- Joe Biden should also consider the impact of the Ukrainian crisis on his relations with China, whose desire to impose itself economically, commercially and politically as an alternative model remains a priority for the Biden administration.
In other words, if Biden were to concede or back down to Putin in Europe, what would be the consequences for US strategy in Asia? And what trust is given to ASEAN countries that feel threatened by Beijing? What are the consequences also for Taiwan? Wouldn't China feel emboldened if Biden let his European allies bear alone or half of their responsibilities towards Kiev? On the other hand, if Joe Biden believes that confrontation with Putin forces him to be the priority of the moment, how can there be no fear that China will take advantage of this to advance its tactical advantage while the major rival power is busy elsewhere?
One final point: Multiple political and diplomatic sources in Paris, Kiev, Brussels and Washington are hinting or speculating that the Russians will not invade Ukraine before the end of the Winter Olympics in China. Why? Not to offend Beijing, which might see spotlights move away from snowy ski slopes at the Olympics to focus on the icy plains of Donbass and the Mariupol region.
In 2008, the Chinese authorities were alarmed when Putin attacked Georgia during the Summer Games. Therefore, this is an element that must be taken into account. How long will it take Putin to finalize his attack plans if that is his intention? And how long will it take the Europeans and Joe Biden to talk him out of without bloodshed, even in the case of a “minor incursion.” We are at this point.