The American news website SpyTalk revealed intelligence reports that there is widespread opposition from members of the Saudi royal family to the rule of the current Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, indicating the extent of the desire to overthrow him.
And Spytalk said in an article written by the editor of the site, Jonathan Broder, that a Lebanese businessman (whose name was not revealed), made a call to the head of the CIA station in his office at the top of the American embassy in Beirut, asking him to schedule a secret meeting in an upscale and out of sight café to exchange Talking about the Middle East, his connection made a fortune.
And it turns out there is, in the end. After several more meetings where each man gently investigated each other's views, the Lebanese businessman finally showed his hand: he is the emissary of several dissident Saudi princes who want to know where the Biden administration might stand in a plot to overthrow the kingdom's regime and its de facto ruler, the crown prince. Mohammed bin Salman.
According to the site, the CIA man "wasn't entirely surprised, but his face remains blank like a dead fish asking for the check." Nice to see you. If I have anything else to say, I'll get back to you."
Bruce Riedel, a former CIA analyst in the Middle East, says Biden would likely approach any such plot with extreme caution.
"He will probably order the agency to hold a meeting, listen to what they have to say, but then keep any action," Riddle told the site.
Biden's disgust with Mohammed bin Salman, or "mbs" as he is known globally, is palpable. Biden called him a "thug" after the CIA discovered that the crown prince, 35, directed the brutal 2018 murder and dismemberment of exiled journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a US resident, at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Of course, criticizing MBS is now easier because the United States is no longer dependent on Saudi oil.
Many Saudi princes also despise Mohammed bin Salman. They have suffered greatly since their 35-year-old cousin began seizing power in 2017. In an unusual move against his rivals and potential opponents that year, Mohammed bin Salman, then the kingdom's defense minister, detained hundreds of princes, billionaires and senior government officials in The luxury Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Riyadh, in what he described as a crackdown on rampant corruption.
Room service
Under the direction of Mohammed bin Salman, the hotel turned into a prison where his followers hung detainees upside down, beat them and deprived them of sleep for days, forcing them to sign a total of $106 billion, according to official Saudi figures. One of the detainees, a Saudi general, died during interrogation.
Since then, many of those arrested have been jailed, rejected or placed under house arrest, sparking deep resentment toward the crown prince within the House of Saud, experts say.
As news of Mohammed bin Salman's purge spread, then-President Donald Trump tweeted in support of him: "I have great confidence in King Salman and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, they know exactly what they are doing. Some of those treating them harshly have been 'Alepping' their country for years!"
MBS has denied ordering Khashoggi's murder, a pretext that Trump has never questioned. But Avril Haines, Biden's nominee for director of national intelligence, has vowed to declassify the CIA's investigation into the incident, meaning that Washington is likely to formally blame Mohammed bin Salman for Khashoggi's murder — a move that would have legal and diplomatic ramifications.
Moreover, Mohammed bin Salman's indiscriminate use of US-supplied munitions against civilians in his war against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen prompted Biden to pledge the Biden campaign to limit arms sales to the kingdom as part of a comprehensive reassessment of US-Saudi relations.
So if any of the dissident Saudi princes suggested a meeting with the CIA to discuss a coup against Mohammed bin Salman, some former intelligence officials say there is no doubt the spy agency should take it.
As much as that might happen next, the picture is complicated by logistical, political and diplomatic considerations, says retired Army Gen. James Clapper, a former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency who also served as director of national intelligence during the Obama administration.
"It will depend on a number of factors," Clapper said in an email to the site.
"Some are more influential than others," he noted, adding that the CIA should weigh such considerations as whether a coup plot could be carried out discreetly, where the meeting would be, and who would be the best US envoy, among other questions.
"If the intent is some form of regime change, that's a very heavy political call, and US policy makers should discuss this very carefully and thoughtfully to include emergencies if things go wrong," Clapper said.
Riddell, now an expert on Middle East affairs at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, says getting rid of MBS could be two ways. One might be for Biden to find a way to convince King Salman that Mohammed bin Salman's behavior has tarnished the kingdom's reputation so much that its standing in the world — and, more clearly, the United States — has been badly damaged.
This is highly unlikely, says Riddle, for the simple reason that the King is unlikely to move against his favorite son and designated successor. He knows that Washington has no real choice but to stick with him.
Dissident princes may want to assassinate Mohammed bin Salman, with or without American support. Such an operation would be very difficult to implement, Riedel said. First of all, the Crown Prince is surrounded by his Imperial Guard. He's also been spending all his time lately in NEOM, the semi-vacant high-tech futuristic city he's been building near Jeddah.
He added that there have already been reliable but unconfirmed reports of three attempts to assassinate the Crown Prince so far, but all of them failed.
Glass London, a 34-year-old CIA veteran, says MBS directs a vast intelligence-gathering apparatus that constantly monitors and identifies threats, especially on social media.
"It's not 100 per cent fool-proof, but to develop credible conspiracies it means there are more people involved," London said. “The more people involved means more contacts. And as the contacts grow, they become more vulnerable to Saudi surveillance.”
London continued: "To eliminate Mohammed bin Salman, you must have devices from the state security apparatus at hand. So you must have people who reject you, ignore them, and cover you up while you are instigating a conspiracy."
And he added: "If it is an organized plot, then you need to know the reaction of the army, and how the National Guard will react. But Mohammed bin Salman has a lot of people watching these people. Then the question is: Are Mohammed bin Salman's spies really loyal to him?"
Some experts say the Saudi princes MBS may fear most are those connected to the kingdom's security establishment. His older cousin Prince Muhammad bin Nayef, the interior minister - and a favorite of the CIA - for many years, is one of them. In 2017, Mohammed bin Salman arrested Nayef and forced him to relinquish the title of Crown Prince. Another cousin, Prince Mutaib bin Abdullah, was running the Saudi National Guard before he was arrested by Mohammed bin Salman. These experts say that these two individuals may still have loyal followers within these two institutions who may heed their calls for a coup.
But another veteran CIA veteran with years of experience in the Middle East notes that Mohammed bin Salman now commands all of the kingdom's security and intelligence services. Moreover, both Muhammad bin Nayef and Mutaib bin Abdullah are still under house arrest or heavy surveillance, making it impossible for them to organize a coup.
"You have to remember, these guys are carelessly afraid" of MBS discovering any plans to overthrow him, said a former senior official in CIA operations, who asked not to be identified in exchange for speaking freely about such sensitive matters.
London said there are other elements of the royal family that are more worrying for Mohammed bin Salman. "He may be more concerned about what his older brother, Sultan, will do," said London.
He cited unconfirmed reports that the US-educated Sultan, a fighter pilot in the Saudi Air Force and a former astronaut on the US space shuttle, had fled the country.
London also said the coup attempt could come from very unsavory angles, such as the kingdom's conservative and influential Muslim clerics, who were angered by Mohammed bin Salman over modest social reforms that include allowing women to drive and appear in public without a male guardian. The clergy have followers of millions of loyal believers, some of whom have become members of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.
But Gregory Goss III, a Saudi expert and chair of international relations at Texas A&M University's Bush School of Government and Public Services, strongly advises the Biden administration not to hold a meeting with any potential coup plotters.
“We have a real problem when we try to do politics in these places,” Gause told SpyTalk. “The Trump administration’s original sin toward Saudi Arabia was to engage in the politics of the ruling family,” when Trump and son-in-law Jared Kushner quietly encouraged bin Salman to designate himself as King Salman’s successor. Trump also backed Mohammed bin Salman's military campaign in Yemen in 2015, now in its sixth year, and which resulted in one of the world's worst humanitarian disasters.
The Trump administration has exacerbated the conflict in Yemen by declaring the Houthis a foreign terrorist organization, effectively stifling humanitarian aid. Both the United Nations and international aid groups say the move jeopardizes their ability to provide food and medical aid to civilians living in Houthi-controlled areas, as well as diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict. In addition to the ongoing fighting, UN officials say there is now a risk of widespread famine.
London expects Biden to make good on his pledge to withdraw US support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen, a move likely to include curtailing arms sales to the kingdom. He says he's not worried if MBS turns to Russia or China for weapons, because it's very difficult to integrate their weapons systems into the kingdom's mostly US-equipped army.
But he also says that despite Biden's election pledges, he should consider the ripple effects before emphasizing human rights in his approach to Saudi Arabia.
"For example, if US courts award a major settlement to Jamal Khashoggi's fiancé, would Biden confiscate Saudi money to pay the settlement?" London asks. “And what would the implications be? Will Saudi Arabia withdraw all its money from US banks? Stop buying US Treasuries? I think it would be more flexible with regard to that in the context of the broader relationship.”
cold shoulders
Gause agrees that the US-Saudi relationship is likely to get cooler under the Biden administration. But he adds that if the new president wants to implement his plan to return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, address Tehran's ambitions in the Middle East or maintain some influence on global oil prices, he will have to find a way to bring in MBS. on board. This means that he will have to communicate with the man he despises.
"There is no alternative solution," he said. "Mohammed bin Salman is the decision maker."
And if any opposing Saudi plans to bring down Mohammed bin Salman reach Biden's desk, the president will have to say, "Thanks, but no thanks." are you alone.
"There really isn't much we can do to help, except to tell them we'll embrace those who brought him down," Riddle says.