Translation by “4” dot com – The Israeli security and military establishment is in a state of concern about the possibility that Russia will restrict Tel Aviv’s military activities in Syria and the countries of the region, by introducing advanced weapons to Damascus to document Relations are more with Iran in light of the military operation against Ukraine.
According to the Hebrew newspaper Haaretz, the Israeli establishment is concerned about the events between Russia and Ukraine, and is trying to assess the repercussions of the events on the region, noting that army leaders and the political level were asked not to comment on what is happening, in order to prevent any misinterpretation of any statements, which affects the Sensitive relations with Moscow, especially with regard to the Syrian arena.
The newspaper indicated that for 3 years the Israeli security and military establishment has been trying to understand the direction that Russia is taking regarding Tel Aviv's activities in Syria, as well as towards Hezbollah and Hamas.
According to the newspaper, at the end of 2018, as part of an assessment of the situation with Israeli intelligence, an analysis of Russian behavior for the coming years was conducted, and a senior intelligence official gave an assessment that Putin was pursuing imperial ambition and building an empire whose leader he would be similar to Russia's leaders from In previous centuries, he is trying to present himself as the face of the people and the face of Russia.
The Israeli security and military establishment sees Russia as not a significant economic player in the face of powers such as China, the United States, and European countries, but intelligence officials say it still has a strong influence, mainly due to the way it operates to achieve its goals.
An Israeli security source said recently: “They use their power efficiently and wisely.” Russia traditionally seeks military friction, and in this way produces disruption to life in different regions, and learns from the consequences of the chaos it created, and from there it works to achieve its goals.
The newspaper says, when the Syrian air defense systems shot down a Russian plane by mistake, the Russians blamed Israel, even though they knew that it was not Israel that intercepted the plane, noting that the prevailing belief in the Israeli establishment was that the aim was to “examine Israel is under pressure and assessing the extent to which it is subject to Putin’s control over major events.”
The Israeli establishment estimates that in order for Russia to regain its position, especially in light of international sanctions, Putin may restrict Israel from carrying out military operations in the Middle East, especially together, and this may make it difficult for him within the framework of the coordination mechanism that has been established among Israeli officers. And the Russians. There are also fears that such a scenario could lead to the transfer of more advanced weapons to Syria and other countries in the region, because Putin will need financial revenues from those deals, and he will want to create a balance of terror against Western military forces in the region.
According to “Haaretz”, there is another source of concern, which is that in the event that NATO begins to deploy military forces in the Mediterranean Sea, or in the countries of the region, Putin may deploy advanced GPS disruption systems, and use electronic warfare and electronic attacks to Make it more difficult for them, and this will lead to disruption of Israel's military and civilian technological systems.
The Israeli army fears that the political condemnation of the attack on Ukraine will push Putin to change his position towards the army's attacks in Syria, especially the Golan Heights.
The current assessment in the Israeli establishment is that the recent events may push Russia and Iran to a situation in which they are close politically and militarily, and the sanctions imposed on Russia regarding trade in energy resources may push Putin to put Iran under his wing.
And Haaretz says: Until recently, Israel believed that Russia was not interested in seeing Iran establish its presence in Syria, as Putin sees (Syria) as an important point of contact with the Mediterranean Sea and its rehabilitation as a source of economic opportunities, while the Israeli military establishment fears Now that in order to bring Iran closer to it, Putin will allow it to operate more freely in Syria, much more than what Israel wants and can contain.
For its part, the Hebrew newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth said that the Israeli interest in the war between Russia and Ukraine focuses on what is happening in Syria, and how the Russians will react in the event of an attack on Iranian targets and arms shipments destined for Damascus or Hezbollah.The newspaper indicated that in recent months, great cooperation has been documented between Israeli and Russian army officers, and there were common interests in expelling the Iranians, and each of them has its own reasons, in light of Moscow's desire to be the sole sponsor of Bashar al-Assad's regime.
The newspaper considered that the next test is the continuation of the activities of the Israeli Air Force in the region when Russia has the option to disable the activity in a large way, given that Israel will not want to harm its systems, noting that Moscow has installed, in recent years, advanced defense systems from The S-300 and S-400, which are known to cover large areas even inside Israel, but have not yet been activated against Israeli aircraft.
The newspaper indicated that the statements of Israeli officials regarding the crisis between Russia and Ukraine may find their way as a test in any new attack against Syria, and whether air freedom will be preserved in a very important area for the Israeli army to prevent the growth of Hezbollah's strength with precision missiles and drones. pilots, air defense systems and other weapons, noting that the Army Staff is preparing to deal with any scenario, including what is defined as a kind of “temporary calm” by the Russians in Syria.
The newspaper says, “Regardless of the recent events, Israel needs Russia to fight the Iranian nuclear program. The new agreement that is being drafted looks worse than the previous one and is expected to turn Iran into a nuclear threshold state. In light of the American impotence, the events once again confirm the fact. That Israel will have to rely only on itself in an all-out war and to strengthen its independent capabilities.