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Israel must prepare now for a diplomatic or military campaign launched by Syria, Iran or even Moscow, all for reasons of its own, to restrict the activities of the Israeli Air Force in Syria.
Elaf from Beirut: On the surface, there is nothing new about Israel's northern borders, and many Israelis mistakenly believe that this serves Israel. Despite Moscow's feeble protests, the Israeli army continues its raids in Syria, and according to Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, these raids are effectively expelling Iran from the Syrian arena. Meanwhile, political and economic crises in Lebanon have weakened Hezbollah and even limited its ability to act against Israel.
In the Israeli newspaper "Israel Today", Iral Zisser, an Israeli historian and lecturer in the Department of Middle East History at Tel Aviv University, says that this calm on the northern front is "fragile and deceptive". He writes, under the headline “The Northern Front: Walking a Tightrope”: “We got a reminder of this just last week, when a Syrian anti-aircraft missile entered Israeli airspace and exploded over central Israel. Israel responded decisively, attacking the Syrian battery that fired the missile, but it was A minor and even symbolic reaction changed absolutely nothing from the Syrians' perspective.In Lebanon, despite this, Hassan Nasrallah says he has acquired advanced air defense systems that allow him to push the Israeli Air Force, at least partially, out of Lebanese skies."
Nothing new
None of this, as Zisser stated at the beginning of his article, is new. Indeed, for years, the Syrians have responded with anti-aircraft fire every time Israel attacked them. In February 2018, they shot down an Israeli plane, and last year, shrapnel from an anti-aircraft missile they fired landed on the beaches of Tel Aviv and the Dimona area. Even Nasrallah's bragging statements were nothing new, because last year Hezbollah fired an anti-tank missile at an Israeli drone flying over the Bekaa Valley. The missile missed its target, but Israel reported that the Air Force changed its planes' flight paths to keep them away from Hezbollah's missiles.
Zisser adds: “Israel has been walking a tightrope in Syria for some time now. It seems that the Israeli airstrikes on Syrian territory are helping Assad to limit the activities of the Iranians in his country, but he does not intend to sever relations with Tehran. Nevertheless, Assad is It is not the problem, but rather Moscow, which does not hide its fear of the continuous Israeli raids in Syria, but rather turned from words to deeds, as its planes recently began to patrol over the Israeli borders, alongside the Syrian planes.
Iran is reaping the benefits
Iran also does not intend to leave Syria. And just as it directed the Houthis in Yemen to attack the Emirates, and the militias loyal to it in Iraq to attack the Americans, it can try to reap the price from Israel. Zisser continues: “Meanwhile in Lebanon, no one expects Hezbollah’s missiles to rust in their warehouses. After all, the gun from the first chapter will eventually fire in the third. This is the case with the air defense systems that the organization smuggled into Lebanon, as well. Such is the case with his efforts to modernize the missiles he already has with precision capabilities, which former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly warned about, but which seem to have disappeared from the headlines in recent months.
The Israeli historian concludes by saying: "Certainly the situation in the north is worrying and Israel should not waste time preparing for the future, whether in terms of a diplomatic or military campaign launched by Syria, Iran or even Moscow, each for their own reasons, to restrict the activities of the Israeli Air Force in Syria, or Nasrallah's attempt to change the rules of the game and remove Israeli planes from Lebanese airspace. Bennett's focus on Iran is important in the long term, but it will not solve many challenges on the northern border."
Elaf prepared this report for "Israel Today"