The Drive website published an article by Joseph Trevithick, a journalist specializing in defense affairs, in which he says that despite the progress America has made in curbing the activities of the state organization, the terrorists of the state organization are returning in some areas of Syria, especially Those controlled by the Syrian regime headed by Bashar al-Assad. The writer notes in his article, which was translated by "Arabic 21", that "the possibility of the emergence of a new version of the state organization is a worrying development, and it comes at a time when President Donald Trump and his administration were looking for a way to remove the American forces from the conflict, and replace them with an alliance of Arab forces from Countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Trevithick notes that the spokesman for the joint forces of Operation Inherent Resolve, Colonel Ryan Dillon, revealed in a routine press conference on April 17, 2018, a sudden increase in terrorist attacks, noting that the "Wall Street Journal" said on April 16, 2018 that the advisor Trump's new national security, John Bolton, entered into negotiations with the Egyptians, the Saudis, the Emiratis, and the Qataris, about the possibility of a joint force that would replace about two thousand American soldiers, any coalition soldiers, and any security contractors in the near future, and the goal is for those countries to participate financially in the spending. Dillon said: "We have also seen, not only reports, but confirmed through our intelligence gathering, that ISIS has begun to carry out attacks on the western side of the Euphrates outside Albukamal against pro-regime forces." We also saw information from public sources, which we could not verify, that there is an occupation of areas south of Damascus.
Dillon added that the intelligence services began to notice an increase in ISIS attacks since the beginning of January 2018, that is, with the beginning of the Turkish intervention in northwestern Syria, which targeted Kurdish fighters; This led many fighters of the pro-American Syrian Democratic Forces to leave their positions to help their comrades, indicating that he warned of this happening, and confirmed that the Turkish campaign slowed down the operations supported by the coalition against terrorists. According to Dillon, the remnants of the state organization in eastern Syria are concentrated in eastern Syria. Euphrates, and closer to the Syrian-Iraqi border, but the group carries out limited operations in areas of the north near the strategic city of Deir ez-Zor, where the river serves as a natural barrier that prevents clashes between the American and Russian forces, and it is also supposed to serve as a barrier between the forces loyal to America and those loyal to the regime. the lion. And the writer says, "It is not entirely clear whether there will be a return to the state organization, or that another version will result from it, as it was a growth emanating from al-Qaeda, and the emergence of the state organization, and its ability to control large areas, so that it became a parallel state, resulted in a form There is a great possibility that members of the organization will want to form several movements, or that they will do so with other affected groups in the region. For example, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, which is growing in size and capabilities, can absorb ISIS elements, who may defect from it again to form another movement in the future. In Iraq, some (Sunni terrorists) joined the Kurds to form a group called the White Flag, which stands against the rule of the Shiite majority. In Baghdad, which fought Kurdish aspirations for independence. The writer states that "this increase in the terrorist activities of the Islamic State has translated into an increase in air and artillery operations in Syria, and the US military has used several types of aircraft in the air, including the AC-130U Spooky, AC-130W Stinger II and AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, as well as since April B-1B Bones, which were used in the recent strike against Assad’s chemical weapons.” Trevithick explains that “on the ground, the army uses towed 155mm howitzers, and the M142 truck-mounted, fast-moving artillery rocket system, the latest of which can fire rockets that reach To 227 mm guided by the global navigation system, before reloading, and this constitutes a reliable force, as America presented it in February against Russian mercenaries, who are fighting alongside the Syrian regime near Deir ez-Zor. The author notes that "the data he collects The US Air Force shows that planes, manned and unmanned, dropped 600 bombs in Syria and Iraq in December 2017, which constitutes a decline in the number of strikes after the restoration of Raqqa, but in January 2018 the number of bombs increased to 800, And he stayed above 700 bombs in the month that followed.
The site notes that "Dillon mentioned this in his press briefing in April 2018, where he said that the American forces are making an effort to contain the organization in those areas - east of the Euphrates -, adding that there are obstacles put in place by the American forces (to prevent the organization from growing). And that they use aircraft to locate targets, which resulted in an increase in targeting operations, while the colonel did not mention what these obstacles are, but they will most likely be fortified sites for the US army or its allies, from which they can monitor terrorist movements and request support.
And Trevithick added, "It is clear that this strong position to maintain pressure on the state organization is contradictory to Trump's desire for a quick victory and a direct exit from a country where the conflict appears blurry, and the president had earlier surprised the public and his senior advisors when he called for an imminent withdrawal of American forces from Syria.” And the writer quotes Trump as saying to reporters at a press conference with the presidents of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania at the White House on April 3: “With regard to Syria, our main task is to get rid of the state organization.. We have finished that task, and we will make a decision quickly, in coordination with others in the region on what we're going to do."
But unfortunately, as Dillon made clear in his recent briefing, the mission is far from being over, and the Islamic State remains a threat, and withdrawing American forces now will embolden the terrorists, and will mean leaving the local fighters who prevented the expansion of the organization without air cover. .
The writer adds: "It seems that Trump insisted on withdrawing, even after Assad's chemical attack on Douma, and after the punitive strike that America directed at him, as he said that the operation is very costly, and its direct benefits to America are few, despite Trump's promise when he was a candidate to defeat ISIS is a complete defeat.
And Trevithick shows that "Hence comes Bolton's plan for an Arab force to assist (stability), and as we have seen, even if this force could be formed, its deployment would increase tension rather than reduce it."
The writer explains that "on the one hand, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE remain in a state of severe disagreement with Qatar, due to the latter's diplomatic relations with Iran, and they are besieging it, and most likely they will not agree to join together to form a new alliance, just as Egypt is involved in its own war." It is against the state organization in Sinai, and it cooperates with Israel regarding the crisis in the Gaza Strip, and supports the group that is fighting the internationally recognized government in Libya, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE are involved in Yemen, so it may be difficult for those countries to find the capabilities and manpower to control eastern Syria for the foreseeable future. Trevithick points out that "Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have supported various groups of rebels in Syria, in agreement with the US military and intelligence in part, and they also united them, and they, in addition to Egypt, are staunch opponents of Assad's rule and Iranian influence in the Middle East in general." The author states that "The issue of Iran is the most important in the equation. With the exception of Qatar, the countries that the Trump administration wants to help in Syria seek to limit the influence of Tehran and its proxies. Saudi Arabia's war against the Houthis in Yemen comes within this framework, which is stopping Iran's geopolitical expansion in the Middle East. It is difficult to imagine that these countries can abandon their goals of expelling Iran and toppling Assad in the name of achieving stability.
Trevithick mentions that Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir stated on April 17, 2018 that Saudi Arabia had offered America to send forces to participate with its forces in Syria since 2011, but the Obama administration refused. The writer comments: "What is worth noting is that the Obama administration rejected the offer for years, often because Obama feared the impact of the deployment of these forces on the situation in Syria, but Trump enjoys closer relations with Saudi Arabia and may accept this support." Trevithick added, "We can see the impact of the agendas." The conflicting parties in Syria, when Turkey entered alone in northwestern Syria to get rid of the Kurdish People's Protection Units, which it considers a terrorist group and threatens its interests directly, and Turkey carried out that operation despite its ally America's opposition to that. In Syria, it is the one that prevents Turkey, the Syrian regime and its allies from attacking the Kurdish areas in northern Syria, and keeps ISIS under pressure, and this presence remains the only guarantee to prevent the emergence of ISIS again, as any Arab alliance will be vulnerable to attack from Russia, Assad and Iran.