The Economist magazine published a report translated by "Arabi 21", in which it said that traffic on the Bosphorus Strait, the waterway that divides Istanbul and connects the Marmara Sea and the Black Sea, was more crowded than usual recently, and more dangerous.
According to the report, Russian warships make their way out of giant tankers, passenger phrases and transit dolphins, towards the north of the Black Sea.
Since the beginning of February, at least six Russian ammunition ships have passed, in addition to a kilo submarine, and Russia now has four submarines of this type in the Black Sea, each of which is armed with missiles capable of hitting targets anywhere in Ukraine.
The report added that "a few countries are monitoring the war for which these weapons were deployed with concern like Turkey, as its government headed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is keen to maintain the recent rapprochement with Russia, and Erdogan said on February 23:" We cannot surrender "aboutRussia or Ukraine.
But Russia's actions may compel him to do so.On the next day, when Russian bombs began to fall to Ukraine, the Turkish Foreign Ministry described the invasion as "unacceptable" and "a serious violation of international law".
It had already denounced Russia's recognition of separatist pockets in Ukraine.War will experience the relationship, and perhaps destroy it.
The most urgent concern of Turkey is its economy, Erdogan, which helped pushing inflation to more than 48% and distorting his currency with universal interest rate discounts, is keen to get a lot of foreign exchange from the busy tourism season, low energy prices and some regional stability measures.It seems that Russia's actions in Ukraine have spoken of such horizons.
The Russians and Ukrainians have formed more than a quarter of foreign visitors to Turkey last year.And this summer, it is supposed to appear a much fewer.
Western sanctions against Russia, one of the main trading partners of Turkey and its main natural gas supplier, will strike a separate blow to the economy.
The war has already caused the vibration of Turkish markets.On February 24, the lira was heading to its worst day this year.
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Turkey does not want to anticipate Russia.The last time he did this, by shooting down a Russian warplane near the border with Syria in 2015, the Russian response, a mixture of sanctions and threats, was strong enough to impose a rare apology and a set of concessions from Erdogan.
This was followed by the melting of the ice in relations, characterized by new energy deals, cooperation in Syria, and Turkey's purchase of the S-400 air defense system from Russia.
Russia has since tried to remove Turkey from NATO, while Turkey, who is pariah from its Western partners, is looking forward to Russia to strengthen its regional interests.
It is striking that this rapprochement has survived the assassination of the Russian ambassador to Turkey, as well as wars in Libya, Syria and Azerbaijan, where Turkey's agents are struggling against Russia.
The two powers cooperate whenever possible and face each other when necessary, almost directly."It is like a caperoa dance," says a European diplomat, referring to a Brazilian style of martial arts."Each party dances, and examines the size of the other, but there is always a risk of developing it into the exchange of strikes.".
When that happens, one of them (usually Turkey) finds a way to reduce its size.When a Russian air strike killed dozens of Turkish forces stationed in Syria in 2020, Erdogan ordered a campaign to bombing against the Syrian regime forces, but not Russian sites.Turkey also remained silent about Russia's strange behavior in Belarus.
But Turkey considers Ukraine a strategic partner.It opposed the annexation of Russia to the Crimea, supported Ukraine's plans to join NATO, and shared its concerns about the Russian maritime crowd in the Black Sea.
Turkey sold dozens of drones for Ukraine, which disturbed Putin.Earlier this year, Erdogan and Ukrainian President Foludmir Zellinski signed a new defensive cooperation agreement.
Albert Coscon of the Carnegie International Peace Foundation, an intellectual institution in America, says that the war will make Turkey to balance its obligations as a member of NATO and its warm relations with Russia.
Turkey's support for Ukraine has already helped the state to improve its dull credentials in NATO.
American diplomats, who are accustomed to holding Turkey responsible for its human rights record, are praising its position on Ukraine, and it is useful that Turkey has started reforming relations with the UAE, Egypt and Israel, all of whom are allies to America.
However, Russia has ways to reduce Turkey's support for Ukraine.This is not clear anywhere as in Idlib, which is a conservative in northeastern Syria, crowded with more than 3 million civilians and controlled by Islamic extremists..
Two years ago, Turkey, supporting the militants, and Russia, which supports the Syrian regime, agreed to a ceasefire.
This led to the stopping of the attack of the regime, which would have pushed the rebels and millions of refugees towards the Turkish border.And no officials in Ankara that since the beginning of the crisis in Ukraine, violations of the ceasefire have been recovered.This is not by chance.
They believe that Russia is using refugees as a weapon against Turkey.One of the officials says: "The Russians look at Idlib as a weak point for Turkey..They send a message that if we do something they do not like [in Ukraine], they can make our lives difficult..
Erdogan said earlier this year that Turkey would do everything necessary as a member of NATO in the case of the Russian invasion.But in practice, there is not much of Turkey's willingness to do it for Ukraine.
Recently, one of the senior advisers of the Prime Minister indicated that Turkey will not adhere to external sanctions against Russia, describing it as "feasible"..
Instead, Turkey tried to put itself as a potential mediator between Russia and Ukraine - an idea now is naive.
Erdogan had a desire to maintain intimate relations with Russia, but the war in Ukraine is likely to prove the end of this matter.