Agency - writings:
Once again, the Turkish leadership finds itself between the most bitter choices. the government of the Turkish president; Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in a difficult situation; He does not want to stir up “Russia” and lose the economic and military gains obtained through years of “cautious friendship”; with the Russian president; “Vladimir Putin” does not want at the same time to lose “Ukraine”; Which is a military and strategic partner for Turkey, and accordingly does not want to anger the West, which supports Kiev.
Ukraine opens its arms to the Turkish economy.
On the third of February 2022, at a time when the drums of the Russian war against “Ukraine” had begun to beat, after “Moscow” deployed more than 100,000 of its soldiers on the borders with its western neighbor, and the intelligence of European countries competed the “United States”; In anticipating the zero hour of the invasion, on that day, the Turkish president resolved; Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a guest in the Ukrainian capital; “Kiev”, on a visit that I considered very important and significant, both in terms of its timing and symbolism, or in the decisions that resulted from it.
On that day; He signed “Recep Tayyip Erdogan”; with the Ukrainian president; Vladimir Zelensky, a series of bilateral agreements, the most important of which from an economic point of view was an agreement to establish a free trade zone between Turkey and Ukraine, an agreement that finally saw the light after negotiations that lasted 16 years.
Ankara imports; From “Kiev,” minerals, ores, grains, and oilseeds come from, and an important proportion of Turkish “wheat” imports come from “Ukraine,” while “Ankara” exports; To “Kiev”, electrical machines, land transportation, aircraft, clothes, fabrics and products made of plastic, and between them cooperation in the matter of: “nuclear reactors”, as “Turkey” was an important tourist destination for Ukraine during the previous years, as the country received more than two million Ukrainian tourists; during 2021.
During the year 2021, the volume of trade exchange between the two countries amounted to more than: 07 billion dollars, of which Ukrainian exports to “Turkey” accounted for: 4.1 billion dollars, while the volume of imports from “Ankara” amounted to about: 3.2 billion dollars. The newly signed free trade agreement between the two parties has raised expectations that the volume of trade exchange between the two countries will exceed $10 billion over the next five years.
However, the economic agreement, which came after many years of stumbling; (There have been 11 official conversations regarding the agreement since 2011), it was not purely economic, but rather came within a broader context of cooperation between the two countries indicating that “Ankara” and “Kiev” enjoy a special relationship, especially in the military and strategic aspects.
Distinctive military cooperation between Türkiye and Ukraine.
during the same visit; Erdogan signed with the Ukrainian president; “Volodymyr Zelensky”, an agreement for the joint production of unmanned aircraft, as “drone” technology will be manufactured; (Bayraktar), Turkey, on Ukrainian soil, and “Ankara’s” investment in drone technology is one of the largest ambitious programs in this field, and it is the “crown jewel” of Turkish military industries, and therefore an agreement of this kind indicates the level of trust and progress reached by relations. “Turkish-Ukrainian” in the military aspect.
The secret behind the signing of this agreement is the decision of “Türkiye”; In 2019, proceed with the purchase of Russian-made air defense systems; (S-400), despite Western and American objections, then, as a punitive measure, the United States “expelled”; Turkey, from the joint production line of the F-35 fighters, which is the future backbone of the Western tactical force in the air, in addition to other measures that limit Turkey's capabilities in the defense industries.
then; The Turks searched for alternatives to compensate them for the American absence, and among them was “Ukraine”, as it occurred in 2020; An agreement for the joint production of turbine engines, including engines for military aviation, an industry in which “Ukraine” has reached an advanced level, and the Turks want to benefit from Ukrainian engines to use them in operating the next generation of Turkish drones.
Since the early days of the war, the issue of the passage of Russian warships through the Turkish waters was a matter; The subject of political and diplomatic controversy on a global scale, and according to the “Montreux Agreement”, which was signed in 1936, “Turkey” enjoys sovereignty over the “Bosphorus” and “Dardanelles” straits, which constitute the only linking channel between the “Black Sea” and the “Mediterranean Sea”. .
The Montreux Convention allows; “Turkey” has “absolute” power to close the straits if “Turkey” is a party to the war, but if it is not a party; (as in the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine), it has the right not to allow warring countries' ships to pass through the straits.
The issue of “Turkey’s” implementation of the agreement was controversial from the outset. The Ukrainian president published; A few days ago, a tweet via (Twitter); In it he said: “I thank my friend the president; Erdogan, and the people of Turkey for the strong support, banning the passage of Russian warships, military support, and humanitarian aid are very important today, the people of Ukraine will not forget this.
Turkey left after that; to deny that it had closed the straits, before returning two days later by its foreign minister; Cavusoglu, to announce that it had informed the Russian side that it: “will implement the Montreux Agreement in its entirety,” which means that “Ankara” will prevent the passage of Russian warships through its straits, and “Ankaro” stated that “Ankara” hopes through that step: “to stop Military escalation in the region.
This decision is not expected to contribute effectively to supporting the military position of “Ukraine”, as “Russia” already has a huge naval force stationed in the “Black Sea”, including submarines and warships, and the Turkish decision: “ The transit of warships returning to their bases in the Black Sea is not prohibited.
Moscow will still be able to: “Send its naval military units from outside the Black Sea to its interior, as it is; (returning), to its ports”, and this: “a loophole in the terms of the agreement in favor of Russia in this case,” according to what he refers to; Said al-Hajj, a researcher on Turkish affairs, for (Al-Jazeera Net) website, this is instead of the Russian attack (land-air) mainly, and not a naval attack.
but; Despite these considerations, the Turkish position by announcing the closure of the straits remains a strong “political” position against Russia, and following that decision, Turkey received: “thanks” from both “Ukraine” and the “United States,” as a statement by the “Foreign Ministry” mentioned. American “that the minister; “Anthony Blinken”: “He expressed his appreciation to Turkey for its implementation of the Montreux Convention and the statements of the Turkish Foreign Minister in this regard.” He also thanked “Blinken”; “Turkey”, for: “its strong support in defending Ukraine, its sovereignty and territorial integrity,” according to the “US State Department” statement.
Türkiye's difficult choices in the Ukrainian crisis..
There are many other reasons for Turkish support for “Kiev”, including the issue of the “Crimea” peninsula, which Russia annexed to its territory by force; Since 2015, “Turkey” has announced that it will not recognize this annexation, as the “Crimean Tatars” are of Turkish origin, and therefore “Ankara” has always been keen to defend their cause, but without provoking “Moscow.” Crimea”; Refat Chubarov, that he sent a letter of thanks to the Turkish President; Recep Tayyip Erdogan: “In appreciation of Turkey’s efforts to improve the standard of living of the Crimean Turks; who were forced to leave their regions in Crimea.”
But even so; There are many reasons for Turkey to wait and not rush to declare a position that Moscow might consider hostile in the war on Ukraine. Over the years, economic relations between Turkey and Russia have expanded; As the volume of trade exchange between them has reached: 40 billion dollars, and each of the officials of the two countries has ambitious plans to double this number, and the Turks depend heavily on Russian energy supplies, and if relations between the two countries are affected, the limited alternatives for Turkish officials to compensate for this deficiency It will be very limited, especially in light of the global energy shortage crisis.
The long years of “friendship” between “Putin” and “Erdogan” have helped maintain a kind of balance in “Turkish-Russian” relations, despite the two countries standing on opposite sides of the conflict in many regions around the world. Such as: “Syria and Libya”, in the form of: “competitive cooperation”, and it is not expected that “Erdogan” will adopt a policy that makes him lose “Russia” permanently, especially in light of the repeated pressures he faces from the “United States”, and the relationship the tension between “Erdogan”; the administration of the current US president; "Joe Biden".
Therefore, it is expected that the Turkish position in support of “Ukraine” will remain: “according to reasonable levels”, with regard to “Russia”, despite “Erdogan’s” condemnation of the war on “Ukraine”, considering it: “a violation of international law, and a fatal blow.” against the security, stability and prosperity of the region.” The Turkish president was keen to stress that both “Ukraine” and “Russia”: “are two friendly countries with close political, economic and social relations with Turkey.” Turkey also continues to offer to play a mediating role between the two countries, which is Mediation that has not yet found a way to light.