Western military analysts indicate that the Russian method of managing the City War does not herald the good of Kiev, as the Ukrainian capital is at risk of a lengthy siege or a very bloody attack, as happened in the previous Russians' battles with Chechnya.As the Russian forces' mobilization approaches Kyiv, Russia's strategy to subjugate the city remained unclear, but one of the options is that the combat formations of the Russian ground forces stop the outskirts The current indicators indicate that it will not surrender easily. Will the Russians choose a bloody attack in front of the eyes of the world or are they besieging a city with a population of about 3 million waiting for surrender?
An unfair battle
بكل المقاييس، تبدو الحرب بين روسيا وأوكرانيا نظرياً، An unfair battle، إذ يفوق تعداد الأفراد والأسلحة لدى الروس، ما يمتلكه الأوكرانيون بهامش كبير، كما أن لديهم أسلحة أكثر تطوراً، وقدرات متفوقة في الفضاء السيبراني، ومع ذلك لم تأت الحرب بما تشتهي روسيا حتى الآن على الأقل، فقد ظلت القوات الروسية خارج العاصمة الأوكرانية كييف، وفشلت في السيطرة على أي مركز سكاني أوكراني رئيس آخر، ولم يثبت الروس بعد سيطرتهم الجوية الكاملة التي كانوا يطمحون فيها، كما فشلوا في المهمات اللوجيستية الأساسية مثل ضمان وجود وقود كاف لمركباتهم العسكرية.
Defective introductions
About a week after the start of the invasion, it is still too early to know how the Russian campaign is over, but the consensus among Western military experts is that the initial invasion was based on very flawed strategic introductions, as some see like the director of Russian studies at the CNN Research Center That is, "Michael Kaufman, that" the Russian progress took more time, given that their plans were based on unrealistic political assumptions, "while others note that Russia's strategy during the first days of the conflict was aimed at seizing Kyiv as quickly as possible and toppling the government of President Zellinski And ending the conflict before it actually started.Pre -War Research conducted by the Russian Intelligence Agency "FSB", and finally leaked to British experts, indicated that the Ukrainians in general are not satisfied with their leadership and pessimists on their country's destination, and this is why the Russian invasion plan relied on this evaluation, assuming that the resistance isUkrainian will be light and that a quick march towards the capital will be possible.That is why a professor at the Department of War Studies at the University of Swedish Defense Henrik Bolson says that "Moscow has made major assumptions about its ability to reach Kyiv within 48 hours, and most of its decisions were formed on this basis as a strategic option, but it was a biased and hypothetical decision that led to a crazy rush He failed to achieve his mission ".
Lack of shared weapons
In a conflict like this, the traditional military doctrine calls for the intense use of the so -called "common weapons" and they are different elements of military force, such as tanks, pedestrians and aircraft, which are spread simultaneousRather, they apparently chose to send isolated forces, such as reconnaissance and paratroopers, forward without adequate support or logistical planning, a logical tactical option if you think you will face symbolic resistance only, but this has not yet happened. ".
The main analyst in Russia’s affairs at the Institute of War Study, Mason Clark agrees that “Russian President Vladimir Putin has made the accounts significantly, and he had a bad plan related to the speed of the collapse of the Ukrainian army, and for this the Russian army decided not to deploy some of its weapons and its most destructive tactics, including The collective bombing of the populated areas that were seen in places like Syria during the early days of the conflict, and for this, at the beginning of the war, Putin avoided using these very destructive weapons of concentrated missiles and air strikes to destroy Ukrainian defensive sites to preserve the idea that this is not a real war, and does not require this type of The use of motorcycles ".
We are tiger and Rajlakin some analysts argue that "the Russian army was not only charged with implementing a bad strategy or that the war planners offended, but in itself it is an unavoidable organization and is not able to perform the basic functions in the battlefield appropriately, and that if they had a better plan, It would have led to no -level results in the battlefield because the Russian army seemed as a tiger of paper, and now the paper burns, ”says Brett Friedman, a former US Marine Infantry officer and author of“ Long -term tactics ”..The chief researcher at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, Rob Lee, wrote on Twitter that "the Russian army makes some very basic mistakes, from strategic levels to tactical levels, and although the Russian army has some capable equipment, and has some of itModern experience in its use effectively, the Russians fail to use these weapons and capabilities properly, which is related to coordination, preparation and leadership..
However, Friedman and other experts warn that "the Russian army is still closer to winning war, because it simply has very huge and well -equipped forces," and the armies usually adapt during the conflict, where Russia can change the gears and adopt a more convenient strategy in front of the fierce Ukrainian resistance, and thereIndeed, indicates that Russia is moving to use the most ferocious tactics at its disposal, including the bombing on a large scale and by thermal bombs (vacuum), the siege.
The siege of Kyiv
Until now, the Ukrainian authorities say that Kyiv is not in the risk of surrounding them, because the roads leading to the southwest are still open, and food producers, drivers and other basic services are doing their best to maintain the continuity of life in the capital, but at the same time they admit that the Russian forces are at the doors And satellite images confirm the approach of a long convoy that extends at a distance of 40 miles, and the Pentagon (Pentagon) warns that things will get worse soon, because Russia may impose a siege on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, within a brutal tactic that deliberately cuts off civilians The basic necessities of life, such as food.In the event that the Russians decide to encircle the city entirely from all sides and wait until the Ukrainian president is surrendered, this may take several weeks in particular, and that the Nazi Germany siege of the city within the Berbrossa operation in August 1941, took 7 weeks under a violent brutal bombing that killed hundredsThousands of civilians and the Soviet Red Army alike.And if the siege is imposed without intense bombing, it may last for several years, while it drains the capabilities and capabilities of the Russian army through the Ukrainian resistance that will try to open gaps for the city from different fronts of the fight And controlling Kyiv to install a loyal government and declare victory to weaken the morale of other Ukrainian forces fighting around the country.
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In storming the capital
As for the second option for the Russian forces, it is to storm Kyiv and defeat the Ukrainian army at any cost, but Mark Bentes, an analyst for the New York Times, says, "The comprehensive invasion of Kiev and other major cities using the regular army may lead to large numbers of numbers of Russian dead, which will raise more protests in Moscow and decline in Putin's popularity..
وعلاوة على ذلك، فإن In storming the capital ستكون كلفته مرتفعة على المدنيين ما سيفجر غضباً حول العالم ويزيد من الضغوط العالمية والمحلية لوقف الحرب، خصوصاً، وأن مسؤولين أميركيين يؤكدون أن روسيا نشرت أنظمة إطلاق قادرة على إرسال صواريخ حرارية قاتلة إلى أهداف أوكرانية، في إشارة محتملة إلى أن الكرملين يجهز المزيد من الأسلحة المرعبة من أجل بث الخوف في نفوس السكان بعد أن أعاقت العقبات اللوجيستية المراحل الأولى من الحملة العسكرية.
Terrifying weapons
And if the American novel, which Moscow has not recognized yet, is correct, it will cause more victims, as thermal ammunition, also known as "vacuum bombs", is known as high heat interaction by absorbing oxygen from the surrounding area, resulting in a wave of longer than an explosion thanTraditional bombs.The magazine "Foreign Policy" quoted military experts as saying that "Russia is likely to use these weapons (thermal ammunition) to terrorize the Ukrainian army and the civil resistance, in an attempt to overcome the logistical obstacles that hindered military progress towards major cities such as Kharkif and Kiev.".
Mick Mulro, the former deputy assistant minister of US defense and the CIA, warned of the consequences of using these weapons, "because the Russians will not only kill the Ukrainians in the direct area directly to influence, but these bombs will absorb oxygen from the air and get it out of the lungs of people close in a horrific way, what might Increases global anger and pushes towards Russia's accusation of war crimes, especially since Russia used these weapons during Chechnya wars in the nineties of the last century and early twenty -first century, which sparked condemnation from human rights groups, as well as during the campaign to restore the Syrian city of Ghouta in 2018 ".
Fire cover
On the other hand, the researcher specializing in Russian military capabilities at the Rand Foundation, Dara Masicot, notes that "the Russian military doctrine relies heavily on artillery and long -range fire to provide cover for the ground forces and undermine the morale of the enemy, and that the presence of missile launchers on the outskirtsFor the Ukrainians in the capital who may suffer severely in the coming days..
"But the Biden administration still expects Russia to learn from its previous mistakes. In the nineties and the first decade of the twenty -first century, Russia launched two attacks against Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, and it was repelled in the first attack, as the local forces managed to respond to a Russian army, most of which were consisted of recruitsAt that time, due to the lack of expectation of resistance, but in the second attack, the Russian army managed to enter the city with a new doctrine and better trained forces, "says John Spencer, head of the City War Studies at the Modern War Institute of the American Military Academy..
Long war
Emily Harding, Deputy Director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, expects the continuation of the war for several years, as "the most likely way to win Ukraine in a long -term battle with Russia, and this victory will only be possible with the continuous support of NATO for resistance".Researchers believe that "thanks to the courage of Ukrainian fighters and the risky Russian attack strategy, Moscow is far from ensuring a quick victory, but if it can win a traditional battle and seize Kyiv in the coming days, there is no doubt that Moscow will immediately seek to Installing a pro -command and demanding that the new system is responsible for all elements of the state authority.The Ukrainian military units will then face a difficult option, so they can either surrender to the government affiliated with Moscow, without knowing whether they are on the alleged list of Ukrainians who will be killed or families, or they can flee with thousands of other refugees, or continue to fight as rebels.The aim of such a rebellion will be to raise the costs that Moscow bears to maintain its control over Ukraine and increase the pressure on the Kremlin, as the local opposition in Russia began to fuel, while organizing protests throughout the country.But if Russia achieved victory, it will do so at a much higher cost than President Putin expected, because the Ukrainians not only gained a moral victory, but also won the time to obtain the necessary support from Europe and the United States, and to impose sanctions on the Russian economy..