The latest diplomatic bets are being made in an increasingly desperate attempt to avert a war in Europe amid dim warnings that Vladimir Putin will order an attack on Ukraine.
After days of talks with allies this week, Anthony Blinken met Sergey Lavrov on Friday in Geneva as hopes faded for the confrontation to abate and to avoid a conflict that both sides agreed would have devastating consequences.
The previous meeting between the US Secretary of State and the Russian foreign minister ended in December, after just 40 minutes, with an exchange of accusations and recriminations and demands that the Kremlin begin withdrawing the more than 100,000 troops massed on Ukraine's borders.
As the two men met, the general public in Ukraine continued to fear the worst, claiming that conflict was inevitable.
The threat of violent conflict has increased dramatically since December, with more Russian forces moving to strategic locations needed to launch an offensive, and the Americans claiming that the Russians were planning "misleading" operations as a pretext for hostilities.
The Americans also claim that the Kremlin is consolidating the ranks of former Ukrainian government figures to form an interim government after the invasion and occupation. On Thursday, the US Treasury imposed sanctions on two deputies from the Ukrainian parliament and two former officials, who are said to be part of the plot.
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The new talks are taking place after Joe Biden said publicly, in a development that surprised those involved in the negotiations, that military action appears inevitable. He said Vladimir Putin "has to do something... and I think he's going to get into [Ukraine]".
The US president went on to say that NATO is divided, facing the crisis... "The situation is different if there is a small incursion, and then we end up fighting about what we should do and what we should not do and so on." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded: "There are no small incursions. There are no small injuries, no small grief over the loss of loved ones."
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during a press conference after meeting with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in Geneva, talking about tensions over Ukraine (Reuters)Following meetings with British, French and German officials on Thursday, Mr. Blinken said in Berlin that allowing Russia to invade Ukraine "would transport us all to a more dangerous and turbulent time, when this continent and this city were divided in two... at a time when the spectrum was looming." The threat of an all-out war on all."
Speaking alongside Mr. Blinken, Germany's new foreign minister, Annallina Baerbock, pledged immediate action against any Russian invasion and imposition of measures "that may incur economic consequences." The country's new chancellor, Olaf Scholz, announced earlier this week that Nord Stream 2, a pipeline project for Russian gas, could be halted if there was an attack on Ukraine.
Speaking in Australia, Liz Truss told Vladimir Putin to "stop meddling in Ukraine and back off its borders before he makes a major strategic mistake." The British Foreign Secretary said that Moscow "has not learned the lessons of history" and that "an invasion would only lead to a terrible quagmire and loss of life, as we know from the Soviet-Afghan war...".
But it is the humiliating Biden-led Western withdrawal from Afghanistan that opponents and some allies view as ushering in an era of "Western defeatism."
"We saw what happened, and it's worrying," said a senior Ukrainian diplomat. "The Americans invested 20 years in Afghanistan, they had a very small force [about 2,400 soldiers], and they pulled out. Afghanistan is undoubtedly far away. Affects Europe. We know that the Russian plan is to try to reach an agreement directly with the Americans, which may exclude us, but also the Europeans. Tomorrow is near."
Ukrainian officials publicly insist that Western support for their country is unwavering, and they point to rising military support from allies as evidence of this.
Members of the political party "Democratic Axe" take part in a rally in front of the British Embassy in Kyiv to thank Britain for providing Ukraine with anti-tank weapons (Reuters)
Britain became a major supporter, sending about 1,600 short-range NLAW (the next generation of anti-tank weapons) on shuttle flights with Royal Air Force aircraft. There is also a joint agreement to produce naval weapons, including boats carrying missiles and minesweepers, based on an agreed loan of 1.7 billion pounds (about 2.6 billion dollars) from London.
More recently, the United States provided equipment worth about $60 million (£45 million), including Javelin anti-tank guided missiles to add to those already supplied. Washington also signed with Kyiv a strategic defense framework.
However, one of the most powerful weapons in the Ukrainian arsenal did not come from the United States or the United Kingdom, but from Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey sold TP2 drones to Kyiv. It is believed that the drones, which were very effective for Azerbaijan in its war against Armenia, an ally of Moscow, had already been used by the Ukrainians in the Donbass to destroy artillery belonging to the separatist forces.
What the Ukrainians will not get from their allies is ground forces, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said in an interview during the missile deal: “It is a fact that the country is not a member of NATO, so it is unlikely that either side will send troops to Ukraine. To challenge Russia...we shouldn't deceive people about it [we have to be honest]".
The West also did not send offensive long-range weapons to the Ukrainians, knowing that Moscow would consider the move a major provocation. The Russians have a decisive advantage there with the deployment of systems such as the BM-27 Uragan and Iskander ballistic missiles that can strike Kyiv from their positions. The joint military exercises with Belarus will witness a strengthening of the air force with the arrival of a squadron of Russian Su-35s fighters.
Anti-tank missiles and drones will be in use if there is a cohesion [direct confrontations between the two armies] after the Russian invasion. Urban fighting like this would be chaotic and bloody, but Petro Kravchuk expects it to happen and also sees it as one of the scenarios that give Ukraine some advantage.
Mr. Kravchuk, a mechanical engineer, joined one of the volunteer battalions that fought in Donbass and Luhansk in the recent conflict, and is now in the country's reserve army, as well as a member of the Civil Defense Force.
He told The Independent: "I didn't think it was over when I went back to Kyiv after the last war and the Russian occupation. The Minsk agreement was reached, and all that, but the fighting was going on and on, and the killing was going on."
“We used anti-tank missiles in the anti-terror operation in Donbass before, but the missile models were old, and if we had newer Javelin and Stinger missiles, of course that would make a difference. Of course, they have great firepower, but If they come to the cities, it will cost them."
"I'm not bragging about it. I don't want to see more fighting, more killing. I was shot last time and may be hit again or worse next time. It shouldn't happen, but it's the fault of the Russians, and even some of our politicians." .
"I have a wife and three children, I have two parents, brothers and sisters. I don't want to leave them and go to fight, but it seems we may not have a choice [it may not be up to us]," said Mr. Kravchuk, who was wounded in the arm during fighting at Donetsk airport in 2014. In the end, we have to defend our country."
People in Ukraine have been living under the shadow of war for years and there was a feeling among many that the worst would not happen, but that seems to be changing, at least among some.
Galinna Nazarenko noted that for the first time since the current crisis began, she is starting to feel very nervous. She said, "I think the war will break out, yes, it is a pity I think that will happen. I am not even sure that it will be limited to the East this time."
"We keep hearing that the Russians are deploying more and more soldiers and tanks in that border area," Ms. Nazarenko said, pointing to Yaroslav Vale Street in central Kyiv, as people headed to shops and cafes during the snowfall. We read that Putin wants to occupy Kyiv and impose another government, There are different theories of all kinds."
Ms. Nazarenko, a chemist, said she, her family and friends are now cautious about their travel plans.
“I have a brother who works in Warsaw. I was going to visit him with my husband next week, but what happens if the fighting starts? The airport will likely be closed, we will be away from our children, so we postpone our flight to see what happens, but we don’t think things will get better, we think they will get worse so far".
Olena Tkachuk, a colleague of Mrs. Nazarenko, joined her for coffee as she spoke.
"People in Europe can't see how dangerous things can become, but it will affect other countries as well," she said.
But we have to think about our situation here. If things get worse we move to Lviv [in western Ukraine], it may be safer. This is not the kind of conversation one would have in a normal society, but we don't live in normal times."