Private: I wrote - Nashwa Al -Hafni:
directly;The Turkish president explained;"Recep Tayyip Erdogan", his country's position on the war launched by "Russia" on "Ukraine", which has entered its seventh day now.
And in his speech during a press conference, yesterday evening, after the end of the government meeting, in the presidential complex in the capital;Ankara.
The Turkish president explained;His country will not abandon "Russia" or "Ukraine";Because its interests with both are, stressing that "Turkey" will not accept the duality of the standards that others follow.However: “Designed to use our validity;Under the Montrero agreement, regarding the movement of ships in the straits in a way that prevents the escalation of the crisis.
And he added that the Russian attack on "Ukraine" is unacceptable;"We respect the unity of Ukrainian lands and resist its people."
He added: “We move in all global crises;From Syria when we opened our doors to them and we still extend a helping hand to all the oppressed peoples.
He stressed that "Turkey" warned of the "Russian-Ukrainian" crisis;Before it occurred and alerted the world of its danger.
Erdogan said: “As members of the NATO, we have implemented all the duties that fall on us,” noting that the parties to the “Russian-Ukrainian” crisis make its solution difficult.
The transformation of the language of the Turkish discourse.
The description of "Turkey" was; The Russian military operation has changed, which confirms a shift in the position of "Ankara" on the current crisis, where "Turkey" has recognized; Officially, Sunday: “The Condition of War”; Between "Russia" and "Ukraine", after it described it: "unacceptable", which authorizes it under the 1936 Montreu agreement; Restricting the arrival of the two warring parties to the "Strait of the Dardanelles"; Which allows crossing into the "Black Sea", but the agreement includes a item that allows war ships for warring countries to cross if they return to their original base. Then came its warning to countries overlooking and not overlooking the "Black Sea"; Not to sail warships via the two straits: "Bosphorus" and "Dardanelles".
The Turkish Foreign Minister announced;“Mouloud Gawishoglu”, that his country will prevent all warships from crossing the straits;According to the "Montrero Agreement", as part of "Ankara" efforts to spare the region more escalation.
An official Ukrainian request to close the "Bosphorus" and "Dardanel".
Ukraine had requested;Thursday, officially from "Turkey";The closure of my Strait: “Bosphorus” and “Dardaneli” in front of the Russian warships, where the Ukrainian News Agency quoted the Ukrainian ambassador and commissioner in Turkey;Vasil Budnar, saying in a statement: "The most important thing is the support of Ukraine, and I invite the Turkish people and the authorities to help us."
"We call for the closure of the airspace and the prevention of Russian warships from crossing in: Bosphorus and Dardanelles, and an official request was submitted to the Turkish side," he added, as he called the Ukrainian ambassador.To impose sanctions on "Russia" and its assets in "Turkey", and prevent "Russia" from obtaining money for war.
"Ukraine" is targeting the request to close the straits;Attempting to prevent "Russia" from bringing more warships to the "Black Sea", but in the past weeks, "Moscow" has already brought many warships through the straits to the "Black Sea";Against the background of a military maneuver, in the middle of last month.
Turkish attempt to record a position!
Commenting on the Turkish step;The Turkish political analyst said;“Hisham Junai”, this step: “comes within the framework of Turkey’s attempt to record a position, as it has made a step that Ukraine supported, and the measures taken by the NATO that belongs to it, and its members impose sanctions on Russia.”
"Junai" indicated;Until: “NATO countries;Financial sanctions are imposed, and there are countries that prevented Russian aircraft from crossing in their atmosphere, as well as efforts to remove Moscow from the Swift system, and from here the Turkish position came with the closure of: Bosphorus and Dardaneli in the face of Russian ships.
He explained that: “Russia had expected this step in the context of its preparations for the war, and its ships from the White Sea to the Black Sea were transferred through the Turkish straits before the start of the war, as it crossed: 06 Russian warships;On February 08, so this step will not affect the war path militarily.
He made a field decision and preferred to stay with (NATO) ..
For his part;The Italian political analyst said;Daniely Rovinte, the decision: “Certainly support for Ukraine;Turkey has concluded a cooperation agreement that extends from drones to various productive, commercial and economic aspects, and even in some strategic aspects.
Noting "Roviniti" that: "Of course, the decision does not mean that Turkey does not have the same type of relations with Russia, but the attack of the Russian President;Vladimir Putin may have pushed his Turkish counterpart;Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to make a decision with a field option, and to stay with the NATO, as well as confirm the credibility of the agreement so that there are no exceptions.
He continued, "Russia has bases in the Black Sea and offensive naval units, and the crossing of the straits is very important for logistics services. It may seem to be an important thing to run enough for other most expensive ways that take a long time."
He warned that: “Turkey fears the freedom of navigation, unrestricted, so the authority granted under the (Montrero) agreement was used to prevent the escalation of the (Russian-Ukrainian) crisis.”
On the effects of the decision on Turkey's external relations, Roviniti said;: “Everything will depend on the Russian reaction, and whether it will consider it a stab or as Ankara confirms that it is a step to avoid more escalation.In any case, the decision will be appreciated by the United States and the European Union.
Determinants are related to the Turkish position.
Since the start of the "Russian-Ukrainian" crisis, it was developed;“Amna Fayed”, assistant researcher at Al -Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies;A group of determinants related to the determination of the Turkish position towards the "Ukrainian-Russian" crisis, by trying to avoid a series of potential consequences and challenges, in the event of the increasing possibilities of war between the two sides, at all economic, military and strategic levels, which can be taken as follows:
01 - The exacerbation of the "gas" crisis in "Turkey": Turkish concerns about the future of energy security in the country are increasing, with the growing threats of the Russian invasion of "Ukraine", which are coinciding with the threats of the "United States of America" and European countries to impose economic sanctions on "Russia";In the event that "Ukraine" is invaded.
It is expected that the repercussions of these sanctions will be dire on "Turkey", especially if they are applied to the "Russian gas" transport lines to "Europe", such as the "Turkish-Russian" line;(Turk Stream), Nord Stream-1 line and (Nord Stream-2), which provides both “Russia” and “Turkey” an important and pivotal position in the “gas” markets in “Europe”.
The American President was; Joe Biden has threatened to impose severe sanctions on international companies and investors; Those who participate in the development of these lines, and announced that if Russia is invaded; “Ukraine”, American cooperation with those companies will be banned to stop the operation of “gas” transport lines, which is considered a threat to “Turkish-Russian” relations, whether in terms of harming the general economic situation of “Russia”, and thus the deterioration of economic, investment and commercial relations that link Both countries, or in terms of the main source of "natural gas" for "Turkey", especially in light of the crisis of "Iranian gas" interruption and the lack of its quantities, which Turkey is exposed to; Since the beginning of this year 2022, amid the frost waves that struck the country, which led to the disruption of work in hundreds of factories and production lines, and to criticize the government of Erdogan.
02 - The problem of overseeing marine corridors: According to its pivotal strategic geographical location, and according to the 1936 Montreu Agreement, "Turkey" has the right to control the movement of navigation via the two stakes: "Bosphorus" and "Dardanelles", and it is committed to imposing restrictions on the passage of warships And, which varies according to whether or not the royal countries are overlooking the "Black Sea". Thus, if Turkey is closed; The "Bosphorus" strait in front of the Russian navy, "Turkish-Russian" relations will be subjected to a great tremor, threatening a series of strategic, economic and defensive relations between the two sides, which Turkey is trying to avoid.
03 - Istrding sanctions on the "Istanbul Channel": to circumvent the crisis of controlling the harassment subject to the "Montrero Agreement", "Turkey" seeks to finish building the "Istanbul Channel"; Which extends in parallel with the “Bosphorus Strait” between: “Black Sea” and “Marmara Bahr”, and the conditions of the agreement do not apply to it, in a way that guarantees the uniqueness of “Turkey” with sovereignty over the channel, the right to prevent and allow the warships to pass through it, which shows both “Russia “Western countries are concerned about it, despite the pre -pledge of“ Turkey ”for the two parties not to convert the channel into a war field. On the one hand, "Russia" is calculated that the channel turns into a war path to the NATO forces, an entrance to the "Black Sea", and on the other hand; Western countries are concerned that Turkey allows Russian warships to reach the "Mediterranean", especially in light of the great economic gains expected to obtain "Turkey" from operating the channel for the benefit of both parties. However, in this case, the United States of America is expected to impose economic sanctions on international companies in the channel’s project, in order to incur “heavy financial losses at the near and far levels.
04 - The Russian escalation against "Turkey" in "Syria": If Turkish support continues to "Ukraine", and the Turkish Drones supplies continued to "Kyiv" for use against Russian forces, it is expected that "Turkey" is expected to face an escalation of Russian pressures against Its political and security interests in northern "Syria", regarding the evacuation of the mercenary and the armed militias of "Turkey" from "Idlib", and incurred more economic and strategic losses in its ranks and the ranks of the forces loyal to it, in a way that guarantees obstructing its role in "Ukraine", and supporting Turkish public opinion The internal anti -Turkey's foreign policies, which threatens to threaten the future of Erdogan and his ruling party in the upcoming elections, in the face of the opposition forces ’alliance, especially in light of the deterioration of economic conditions, and the continuation of the refugee crisis, which is expected to increase in the event of Russia “Bazo” “Ukraine”.
What is the "Montrero" agreement?
The "Montrero" agreement was;It signed in 1936 in "Switzerland", an agreement that granted "Turkey" control of the two stakes: "Bosphorus" and "Dardanelles".
The agreement regulates traffic for commercial ships in times of peace and war, and it includes: 29 items and four accessories and one protocol, and it signed the treaty: “Turkey, Britain, France, Bulgaria, Romania, Japan and Australia”, in addition to the former Yugoslav and Soviet federations.
The treaty allows warships affiliated with the countries of the "Black Sea" freedom of movement without registration or condition. As for the warships of countries from outside the "Black Sea", according to the treaty must be light and help;So that its number in the group does not exceed 09 ships by passing through the strait at the same time, and with a total load that does not exceed: 15 thousand tons, provided that the period of its presence in the "Black Sea" does not increase: 21 days.
In the event that any ship remains a longer period of this period, the country that Turkey allowed its ships to pass is responsible for this violation of the terms of the treaty.
Turkey is entitled;In times of war, the war ships of the warring parties prevent the warfare from crossing, and according to the agreement, if they are a party to the war or consider themselves threatened with imminent danger.